Saturday, December 29, 2012

Technical Tipping Point?

We continually see new graphs, maps and tables showing changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation, ice cap area, etc., etc., BUT the impact on public perception of Climate Change seems minimal. How come?

Most people are pretty self absorbed-- interested in themselves--and perhaps their immediate family and a few friends. Information concerning global trends doesn't resonate. It's not so much the technical aspects as the fact that people don't pay much attention to information that is not local and specific and readily visible. There's a tendency for humans to depend on innate perception of what could possibly affect their immediate environment. Of course that innate sense has been wrong, dead wrong, countless times over the millennia--but that fact offers no solace for the future of Climate Change mitigation.

Soooo, as far as technical information goes---it probably doesn't matter that much. I find each new data point intriguing, but I'm a scientist. It will be a long wait till some particular study galvanizes massive public action to reduce CO2 emissions in an attempt to save the Earth as a quality human habitat.

Consider folks who fly on commercial airlines (which account for a HUGE amount of CO2 emissions, by the way). Most do NOT even vaguely understand aeronautical engineering, navigation systems or cockpit flight controls. They still board the planes and fly at 20,000+ feet of elevation at amazing speeds, through storms and think nothing of it. Why? Because some entity WANTS them to fly---and spend money for the experience. There's profit in flight--perhaps not what there used to be, but there's still profit. People don't understand the technology of automobiles, but they buy and drive them by the millions. Fortunately, with automobiles, there is labeling--mpg figures have made a difference--at least to some Buyers. There's a lesson there, but few are learning from it.

Generally, less CO2 emission means less profit. Of course there's the Earth to consider and future generations of humans and other living creatures, but our track record as a species isn't that great at preservation and enhancement. Humans are more highly skilled at discovery and exploitation. Rain forests, ivory, buffalo herds, gold, coal, oil, etc etc all displaced and destroyed or decimated. How do we perform against that pattern with Climate Change? Is there a tipping point in terms of behavioral change among individuals? Can that change occur quickly and create small, but significant reductions in CO2 emissions holding the potential to avert non-linear, catastrophic climate events?

I believe it can and that is has in various communities around the world--none in the US.

I read an important book recently (below) that focuses on those communities and suggests that similar efforts could occur nearly anywhere, given some carefully planned programs that address human perceptions and Climate Change in a realistic way. The book has a huge amount of material, from which I plan to pull some particularly interesting ideas that might produce easy, pleasant changes in human behavior.


Visualizing Climate Change

A Guide to Visual Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions


Wednesday, December 26, 2012

The documentary "I AM"

This is a post that got deferred---for a while!!

If you haven't seen this short documentary (77minutes) you should. It's not primarily focused on Climate Change--made back in 2008 when that topic was not quite as prominent as it is now. 

www.iamthedoc.com 

The above link takes you to the website--info, order the DVD, watch, join forum, etc. 

The movie involves discussions with famous intellects concerning what is wrong with human society (much), how come (many reasons) and what can be done to change it. 

From the Climate Change perspective TIME is the most ominous problem. If there is a 4-5 year window of opportunity within which to avoid unknown non-linear acceleration of climate degradation, slow progress toward change is not going to avert a major reset of the Earth's environment and the biota dependent on it. 

Humans tend to ignore warnings in preference for "business as usual, as long as possible".
This is often followed by "OOPS" episodes and in the case of Climate Change, a very big 
"OOPS" may transpire. 

For the 1% that makes partial sense, because however bad things get, the rich will find a place and a way to minimize any diminution in their lifestyle. The health effects in terms of disease, famine, etc will be borne mostly by the 99%.  

2012 retrospective

Yes, this retrospective is a little strange--this blog didn't start till way into 2012 and then it sorta went sideways along the way. With escrow challenges, plus Sandy effects, and general malaise arising from  a lack of engagement during the election followed by post election fiscal cliff posturing, inconsequential Doha UN Climate Talks, etc, etc. , there's been an big gap in posting. 

Nonetheless 2012 was a significant year for Climate Change. The Climate IS changing--faster than most forecasts and although humans are the primary cause, they have, at this point, no control over the process and for the most part no clue in how to get that control. Guess that means I'm not using "significant" in a good way?

The local Green Your Business Challenge finished up with some winners--well, most offices were winners, but there weren't many participants. It's safe to say the gasoline consumed by the members of the committee in attending the meetings exceeded the CO2 saved by the conservation measures undertaken by the offices. That's pretty common with many Climate Change programs. The Energy Event put on the the County of San Luis Obispo was another example in which the carbon footprint of the gathering far exceeded any CO2 savings generated by the content (there were photo-ops for politicians, so it wasn't a total waste--LOL). 

Personally, the most important epiphany of the 2012 occurred when I quit trying to identify a threshold of factual information about how bad things were getting in a more rapid than forecast way to turn the tide. The scientist in me kept seeking the holy grail of statistics that, when viewed by any remotely rational person, would instantly galvanize them into focused, energy wise action. The information keeps flowing, but there is no magical tipping point related to public action. Quite the contrary, many people are sick of hearing, reading, thinking about the negative news concerning Climate Change. The incredible super storm Sandy came, went and except for the areas still recovering, or attempting to, has largely left public consciousness, certainly as a possible artifact of Climate Change. I still review the latest new on the science front, but that's my background. The majority of people really don't care to be aware of the details. 

This "tuning out" process is a danger, because of the time factor. As I've mentioned previously, there may be a 4-5 year window within which CO2 emissions must depart the "business as usual" curve and begin to decline. If they don't, the chance of non-linear, unpredictable climate events occurring could increase to a virtual certainty. Few of the governmental, organizational, technological "solutions" aimed at achieving CO2 reduction will come to meaningful fruition inside that 4-5 year window. 

What CAN happen within 4-5 years are simple changes in personal behavior that could reduce CO2 emissions by 10-20% with little adverse affect on lifestyle. The challenge to find a way to achieve that behavior change. Forget media and big money. They flow elsewhere, as does the political power. In fact, it makes many of those industrial-institutional types extremely uneasy that the public even consider changes in present lifestyle---who knows where that might lead? 

I'll explore this line of reasoning further soon (really!), but it is really very simple. Motivation and awareness meet a trigger and choices are made. Where does that process happen every day, millions of time across the nation? Restaurants! People desire food (motivation) they become aware of options and consequences (the promise of gastronomic delight vs calories and price) and with the help of a menu (the trigger) they make choices. WHAT IF there were a menu or menus to help trigger energy wise decisions? 

That's one of the projects in development for early 2013.