OMG! Another book!

It sure is old school to read books all the time--everyone knows social media is where it's at in my business. It's hard to find real estate books---either the "educators" (AKA seminar providers) don't feel an urge to write, make more money doing seminars, or don't figure their audience would read a book, if they did write one. It's probably all of the above. Sobering thing is that the major seminar folks are the same people (or descendants therefrom) who were doing seminars in the 80's. Says a lot about the industry. My point? I did get a little off track there--old age setting in. It's more fun to read books about non-real estate topics and relate the content to real estate. That's also often disturbing-- on so many levels.

The latest "green" book underway is The Age of Global Warming, A History. Author is Rupert Darwall, another UK author (US is way behind on this sort of thing).

Darwall basically runs through the last 50+ years of climate concern from Rachel Carson's Silent Spring (1962) to the present politics as usual approach of ACTING like positive things are happening when they aren't. It's a dark tale because we (as in humans) haven't really come very far.
The science is better and more people are concerned about the future, but the institutional/governmental elements within our society cannot get beyond short term political and financial priorities. Change is always left till later on someone else's watch. AND it always seems that those individuals who surrendered to their venality escape the unpleasant consequences that might one day deter their successors from making similar misguided choices---those go on and on.

Ironically, I started college in 1965, so have been around for much of the time span of the book. Most of that period I was either an environmental scientist or former environmental scientist. As it turns out, science is not high on list of factors that drive decisions regarding climate change. It's like we're all careening down a narrow mountain road in a car of questionable quality being driven by someone who has never been at the wheel before, has dismal eyesight, but who is an expert at forecasting oil futures.

Makes perfect sense, if you want to go over the side!

I've got a about a quarter of the book to go, but will share my impression that as climate change data points increasingly toward more drastic effects in shorter and shorter time frames, the political inertia hardly changes. There's either a belief in miracles or a cynical fatalism reigns supreme among our alleged leaders. Don't get me started on the "press".

Decisive Ideas

Among the books I've recently read is

DECISIVE   How To Make Better Choices In Life And Work

Chip Heath & Dan Heath, 2013

This excellent and practical book has much to say about organizations, individuals and the future of Earth. Decisions drive the future and relative few are optimal--even at major scales. There are better ways to approach decisions and this book shares an integrated plan. 

In Chapter 5 there is discussion of the dangers of Confirmation Bias, ie seeking information that confirms initial assumptions (often self serving) and often encourages continuing down the “business as usual” path. 

To break out of that rut (the difference between a rut and a grave is the shape of the hole) we need to proactively foster constructive disagreement within our organizations. 

That’s not an easy task when many organizations are structured to suppress any dissenting opinions. 

Roger Martin is credited by the authors for devising a means around such barricades to open discussion of widely ranging options.

In considering a choice that is not high on the list of preferences, or perhaps not on that list at all, we should ask this question-- “what would it take to make this option the very best choice?”

What conditions would need to exist? What expansion of understanding would be necessary? What future scenarios might be seen as probable to make this choice take the top position on the list? 

The key is that instead of triggering instant push back and rampant nay saying from the devote corporate players, this question requires some creative thought --- without requiring abandonment of the preconceived notions they came in with. Imagining a set of conditions in which we’d change our minds can be very healthy for all of us in business and in our personal life. 

For example, what would it take for real estate brokers and agents to fold energy efficiency into the listing and selling process in both residential and commercial real estate transaction? 

A corollary would be what would it take the stare and national trade association to endorse energy efficiency as an attribute that Buyers should consider among their numerous other search criteria. 

Ocean views, school districts, living area, bedroom count, granite counters, swimming pools are considered bona fide attributes. Energy efficiency isn’t. What would it take to change that? 

Thought experiment: Make a list of 5 major conditions that would need to exist for energy efficiency to assume an important role in the decision process for choosing the best house or commercial property? 

Selling, service, Earth

Been a while--reading lots of books and working in a very bizarre real estate market environment. Also ran SLO Half Marathon, went to state association business meetings in Sacramento, etc. Will write more on the meetings.

One of the books I read was Daniel Pink's To Sell Is Human. I've read his other books and decided to see what this one added. Unlike many books I've read lately, there is a nice wrap at the end of this book that sorta gets to the point and leaves the reader with some further questions to ponder. I'm paraphrasing a bit here for good reason.

Finally, at every opportunity you have to move someone in shaping their decisions be sure you can answer the two questions at the heart of genuine service. 

1. If the person you're selling to agrees to buy or is persuaded in their decision, will his or her life improve?

2. When your interaction with that person is over will the EARTH (Pink uses world) be a better place than when you began? 

If the answer is no, you're doing something wrong. 

Climate Change puts an interesting perspective on question #2 and Question # 1 could be expanded to include the improvement of the lives of the buyers and their descendants. The pattern of looking primarily at the immediate consequences of our actions lead us to the present situation. 

Real estate doesn't score very well on the two questions, except in a very limited sense. Escrows close and commissions are paid, but is the Earth improved by the interaction? Many would argue that the Earth's status is someone else's problem--but whose? 

Perhaps more interactions in the realm of commerce and government should ask these two questions more often. 

Awkward Comparison

Here's a look at a sales comparison.

1. Let's imagine a buyer walking into a automobile dealership and asking the salesperson for help in purchasing a new car that produces low CO2 emissions and is economical to purchase and own. The buyer is willing considering electric cars, hybrids or even gas engined cars with excellent mileage and lower purchase price. You'd expect the salesperson to be familiar with the cars available at that dealership that were likely to meet those criteria. You'd also expect the salesperson to be somewhat familiar with the technologies of the different approaches to fuel efficiency and driving tips to help increase mileage.


BTW I recently bought a 2013 Porsche Boxster. Not an archetypical "green" car, but Porsche has developed some interesting technologies that allow a sports car that is 94% recyclable and capable of 163 mph top speed to get 30 mpg on the highway. Oh, and the salesperson explained all that to me (I already knew the details from their website).

2. Now, consider a home buyer walking into a real estate office and asking an agent for help in purchasing an energy efficient home in a location and orientation that minimizes utility and transportation costs. Will the agent know which homes are energy efficient? Will the agent know why? Will energy saving technologies be discussed? What about possible upgrades for older homes that are in prime locations, but lack current technology? Will solar path, wind patterns and commuting distances enter into the discussion?

Yes, the comparison is awkward! Maybe you've had the good fortune to find an agent who's knowledgable about green features and things to look for in an energy efficient house. There are excellent "green" agents out there, but not many. If you asked about an ocean view or granite counters, you'd get lots of assistance.

Car salespersons may be the brunt of some classic sales jokes, but, on average, car manufacturers and those that sell their cars are doing a much better job in addressing CO2 emission than the real estate industry. Look at several automobile websites to see lots of information about energy efficiency. Now look at major real estate websites. See anything about energy efficiency? Views are mentioned and lot size and sqft and granite etc. Utility costs?

What's it gonna take? What scientific revelation would push awareness across a magical threshold and cause the real estate industry to seriously consider Climate Change as a real estate related matter that represents an immediate priority? The real estate industry ignores the science that continues to flow out of copious research and continues with "business as usual" because it can.

Ultimately, the consumers of real estate services get the kind of representation they deserve, but what about the Earth?

System 1 and System 2 cont'd

SLOWLY reading Thinking Fast and Slow---Kahneman does not write page turners. I'm up to Chapter 8 and yesterday had a mild epiphany about the significance of System 1 and System 2 in society. Much of organizational control, be it governmental, corporate or even consumer marketing aims to create an environment in which System 2 NEVER COMES INTO PLAY.

When the established order of things is operating optimally, System 1 makes all the decisions based on whatever information (or lack of information) is made available. When System 2 enters the decision process control erodes. The subject might ponder the information, deem it inadequate or see it in a way not even imagined by those creating and conveying it. Uncertainty enters the arena. The status quo is thereby threatened, and the institutions that created the status quo thrive on the absence of uncertainty in the outcome of decisions.

This will become an increasing problem with Climate Change issues. Creative, out of the box, solutions are needed and those generally arise from System 2 processes. Is there a way to shift System 1 generated responses in a more energy efficient direction or at least to trigger increased reference to System 2 thinking prior to decisions great and small?

BTW this System 1 bias is and has been a major problem for real estate. Information is carefully filtered by trade organizations to create a very predictable sale process conducted by a minimally diverse population of agents and brokers who represent a very diverse array of clients, each with unique interests. Somewhere between the real world and the pigeon holes of a one size fits all business environment, real estate ceases to be an art and becomes a pursuit predominantly practiced by adept technicians.

System 1, System 2

Several years ago I became interested in the process of decision making. At the time I was starting to take more photographs for other brokers and also doing some website design. I thought if I understood how Buyers made decisions about housing purchases I could build better websites and take photos with strong resonance for Buyers. I read a number of books and papers (the latent academic streak at work). Among them were papers by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.

As you know from this blog, I'm increasingly troubled by the apparent inability of people from most walks of life to make apparently rational decisions about energy use and the future of Earth. Consumers, those in government and those in the corporate sector are not performing in a way that creates much optimism for the quality of life to be experienced by coming generations.

I purchased Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow just over a year ago and never got around to reading it. I always have 3-4 books going and Thinking Fast and Slow just never made it into the mix, I think because the book is of substantial size and rich content. I knew it was going to be slow going and it was a busy year--best for quick reads, if not for optimal effect.

A few days ago I was looking at the smallish pile of unread books for the next read--to follow Visualizing Climate Change (a BIG book indeed!). I had the idea that Kahnman's System 1 and System 2 might offer a platform for understanding why Climate Change decisions aren't going very well and, more importantly, how to get System 2 fired up more often in confronting choices affecting the Earth.

I anticipate a nexus between the visualization elements able to alter behavior and System 1/System 2.

That's a brief background for some upcoming posts---if it sounds interesting, read the Visualization of Climate Change and Thinking Fast and Slow. A thorough understanding of those two books will move the reader well along a path to the cutting edge of Climate Change psychology. It will also demonstrate the failure of our various institutions to meaningfully engage the real challenges ahead.

Technical Tipping Point?

We continually see new graphs, maps and tables showing changes in temperature, sea level, precipitation, ice cap area, etc., etc., BUT the impact on public perception of Climate Change seems minimal. How come?

Most people are pretty self absorbed-- interested in themselves--and perhaps their immediate family and a few friends. Information concerning global trends doesn't resonate. It's not so much the technical aspects as the fact that people don't pay much attention to information that is not local and specific and readily visible. There's a tendency for humans to depend on innate perception of what could possibly affect their immediate environment. Of course that innate sense has been wrong, dead wrong, countless times over the millennia--but that fact offers no solace for the future of Climate Change mitigation.

Soooo, as far as technical information goes---it probably doesn't matter that much. I find each new data point intriguing, but I'm a scientist. It will be a long wait till some particular study galvanizes massive public action to reduce CO2 emissions in an attempt to save the Earth as a quality human habitat.

Consider folks who fly on commercial airlines (which account for a HUGE amount of CO2 emissions, by the way). Most do NOT even vaguely understand aeronautical engineering, navigation systems or cockpit flight controls. They still board the planes and fly at 20,000+ feet of elevation at amazing speeds, through storms and think nothing of it. Why? Because some entity WANTS them to fly---and spend money for the experience. There's profit in flight--perhaps not what there used to be, but there's still profit. People don't understand the technology of automobiles, but they buy and drive them by the millions. Fortunately, with automobiles, there is labeling--mpg figures have made a difference--at least to some Buyers. There's a lesson there, but few are learning from it.

Generally, less CO2 emission means less profit. Of course there's the Earth to consider and future generations of humans and other living creatures, but our track record as a species isn't that great at preservation and enhancement. Humans are more highly skilled at discovery and exploitation. Rain forests, ivory, buffalo herds, gold, coal, oil, etc etc all displaced and destroyed or decimated. How do we perform against that pattern with Climate Change? Is there a tipping point in terms of behavioral change among individuals? Can that change occur quickly and create small, but significant reductions in CO2 emissions holding the potential to avert non-linear, catastrophic climate events?

I believe it can and that is has in various communities around the world--none in the US.

I read an important book recently (below) that focuses on those communities and suggests that similar efforts could occur nearly anywhere, given some carefully planned programs that address human perceptions and Climate Change in a realistic way. The book has a huge amount of material, from which I plan to pull some particularly interesting ideas that might produce easy, pleasant changes in human behavior.

Visualizing Climate Change

A Guide to Visual Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions

By Stephen R.J. Sheppard